MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5627922aae1419a16a114d26b9e80d6a8b57da2699b426a52920684840d0f98b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 3,795$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.43 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 41c | 3,559$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.51 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 1,215$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.51 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 1,122$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.86 | 1,359 | 50.8%690 W · 669 L | +12.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 62c | 761.65$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.62 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 62c | 705.73$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 58c | 657.59$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.88 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 2c | 600$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Over | 56c | 536.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 58c | 464.19$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.39 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…9f8fbacked Under | 27c | 461.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.42 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 423.36$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.05 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 45c | 323.78$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.72 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 239.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 73c | 232.32$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 57c | 221.49$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 43c | 209.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.51 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Over | 41c | 167.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 161.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Under | 45c | 156.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 153.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 120.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 44c | 117.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 44c | 117.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 44c | 117.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 44c | 117.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 57c | 110.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 45c | 92.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 58c | 85.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 59c | 85.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 59c | 85.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 62c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 59c | 76.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 77c | 76.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 63c | 66.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 64.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 62c | 57.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 60c | 54.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 47c | 50.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Under | 62c | 40.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 48c | 40.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 43c | 30.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 60c | 29.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 37c | 28.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked Over | 40c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Under | 74c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 63c | 23.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.