MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aa80c227792e250ad1c56d18afe9850a39bc4a39b3436c227e6cc75e593bdba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Over | 3c | 6,001$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,841.09 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Over | 3c | 3,600$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,478 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Over | 5c | 3,050$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,902.5 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 2,043$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Over | 9c | 1,325$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.5 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 947.95$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.42 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 61c | 855$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.55 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 39c | 848.72$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.72 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 53c | 783.02$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 45c | 700$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 51c | 625$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 51c | 575.21$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.23 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Over | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…9f8fbacked Under | 13c | 480.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 420$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 34c | 223$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 49c | 207$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 186.57$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 40c | 158.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 151.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 50c | 121$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 49c | 101.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 49c | 101.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 53c | 100.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 50c | 99.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 77c | 99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 35c | 98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 48c | 94.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 50c | 84.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 64c | 57.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 42.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 37.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 51c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 24.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.