TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astrosof Nationals, Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,524 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Nationals46c24,752$11,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,385.7260451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Astros54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,20053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02d5…88c7backed Astros52c13,393$6,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,403.572356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Astros55c11,816$6,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,261.7818837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8201,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals44c5,693$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.971,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Astros65c5,408$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.1654345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros57c5,368$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,318.289,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Nationals48c5,332$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.5126949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Nationals16c4,421$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.8741747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Astros53c3,600$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.9138249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Astros53c3,349$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.4813247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Astros55c2,842$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.3938444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals48c2,791$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.162,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Astros54c2,700$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24249250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals31c2,498$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.792,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e9…5105backed Nationals41c2,075$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.834151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Astros56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb22…c471backed Astros57c1,800$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…3ea3backed Nationals47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Nationals47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70524248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d67…0021backed Astros57c1,440$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nationals43c1,405$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.295850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b3…e5e9backed Nationals43c1,300$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Astros58c1,300$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.8740152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Nationals42c1,299$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.435940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0823…b085backed Nationals43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f71…5b8bbacked Nationals43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.36per pick48cpaid-69.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaf39…4e13backed Nationals43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Astros53c1,141$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.171,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Nationals42c1,129$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.7285047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed Nationals4c1,125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-79.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.9993240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Nationals45c985.33$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.428053.9%151 W · 129 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Nationals14c969.79$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5328949.1%142 W · 147 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…9f91backed Astros57c960$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+40.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Nationals8c936.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8517927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Astros54c934.43$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.8134051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals42c879.51$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.3950843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Nationals8c850$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.516934.9%59 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Astros46c849.15$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.825454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Nationals42c739.52$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.624547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Nationals36c719.92$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1131244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe837…0cfdbacked Astros57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nationals45c677.62$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9370946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Nationals12c670.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8027213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d31…2cbfbacked Nationals48c651.48$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.713259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe63…4772backed Astros53c651.32$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.121275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+53%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Nationals47c608.12$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.8256451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25e…0aa5backed Astros53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28214549.7%72 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4583…0bb9backed Nationals42c582.75$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.7512552.8%66 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6f…482cbacked Astros52c580$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.46553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Nationals45c570$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.516651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Nationals11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5527733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13f5…7049backed Astros58c499.97$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Astros56c499.82$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.924761.7%29 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c4a…15c7backed Astros56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.436753.7%36 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Astros64c423.89$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.621656%121 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Nationals22c418.02$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3421246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked Nationals53c388.68$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20615151%77 W · 74 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Nationals3c377.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.014754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…450ebacked Astros57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Astros63c332.16$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8543946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals44c300.13$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.061,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Nationals42c293.01$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0650852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Astros54c263.44$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.121,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Nationals41c243.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.661,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ae…41a4backed Nationals47c242.42$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.942839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Astros56c233.93$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.936243.5%27 W · 35 L-9.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Nationals43c231.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012558.4%73 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Astros52c230$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.41,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nationals47c213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1140548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eac…e064backed Nationals47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Astros64c212.59$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0786751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Nationals47c212.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021853.2%116 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8217139.2%67 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Astros53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9431347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe259…b890backed Astros74c195.65$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9516162.1%100 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Astros62c194.52$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5266645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Astros73c193.03$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6680680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x9bf7…cdb7backed Nationals33c190$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6245749.7%227 W · 230 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Astros69c190$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3614565.5%95 W · 50 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb5…da2cbacked Astros53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6812355.3%68 W · 55 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nationals44c188$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.841,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nationals42c184.62$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.545,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Astros56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5728447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bce…0445backed Nationals43c174$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.82757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b32…19d9backed Nationals43c166$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Nationals32c162.56$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5247348.8%231 W · 242 L-22.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Nationals26c156.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6839739.5%157 W · 240 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2719…28ddbacked Astros65c153$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5525364.4%163 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74c4…4493backed Nationals32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4817850%89 W · 89 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Astros74c147$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2234164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Astros56c142.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8616659.6%99 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Nationals53c142$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5611560%69 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals14c138.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.974,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x534e…ecfebacked Nationals52c138$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4427458.8%161 W · 113 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.