NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Magic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56d3603788e10f997b70a985894668edbba3a929d6a82b18dcbf76ce1fb0d606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94c1…b3f2backed Magic | 0c | 13,152$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…e4cfbacked Magic | 18c | 9,910$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Raptors | 56c | 1,756$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.46 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…6d22backed Raptors | 68c | 1,535$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors | 71c | 1,520$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.47 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Raptors | 66c | 1,425$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.97 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Magic | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 381 | 43%164 W · 217 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Magic | 29c | 1,055$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Magic | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Magic | 23c | 599.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 252 | 36.9%93 W · 159 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Magic | 35c | 578.2$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.37 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Raptors | 77c | 520.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Magic | 34c | 520$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.31 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae0e…6527backed Magic | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Magic | 29c | 350.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Magic | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Raptors | 75c | 245.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Magic | 22c | 221.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…603dbacked Magic | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Raptors | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Raptors | 71c | 125$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…3295backed Raptors | 80c | 121.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Magic | 25c | 103.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Magic | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Magic | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Magic | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Magic | 27c | 99.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90d…7db5backed Raptors | 76c | 93.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 309 | 54%167 W · 142 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Magic | 28c | 81.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Magic | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Magic | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Magic | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…83abbacked Raptors | 77c | 63.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…d2dbbacked Raptors | 77c | 60.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…1bb6backed Magic | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Magic | 26c | 59.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Raptors | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Raptors | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Raptors | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…5f22backed Magic | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Magic | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d5…7b41backed Magic | 25c | 40.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e6…0b97backed Magic | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Raptors | 76c | 38.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | -20.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Raptors | 76c | 37.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Raptors | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Raptors | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…e06bbacked Raptors | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb755…acbabacked Raptors | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba0…3d98backed Raptors | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…d2febacked Raptors | 76c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Raptors | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…5c4ebacked Raptors | 77c | 22.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…c02fbacked Raptors | 77c | 21.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Raptors | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Raptors | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b24…e303backed Raptors | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…1871backed Raptors | 76c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…a899backed Raptors | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.