Space · resolved market
Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 6c | 13,422$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 6c | 4,894$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,616$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 7c | 3,064$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,889$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 76c | 2,833$2,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a9…2700backed Yes | 6c | 2,795$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6093…3d48backed Yes | 46c | 2,184$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,705$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 6c | 1,605$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…1ef2backed Yes | 28c | 1,568$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b26…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 1,492$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 63c | 1,442$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,307$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 8c | 1,283$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 935.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 893.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 848.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 6c | 545$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +335.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…81c4backed Yes | 5c | 524.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 72c | 420$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 79c | 418.35$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…9bbabacked Yes | 5c | 410$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 400$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 13c | 393.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 268.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 27c | 205$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb625…a725backed Yes | 21c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7a…cc34backed Yes | 11c | 194.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afd…cf93backed Yes | 7c | 189.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 77c | 186.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 80c | 165$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 74c | 113$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 107$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 100.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 93.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…3c40backed Yes | 24c | 83.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9c2fbacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b118backed No | 71c | 42.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…389bbacked Yes | 40c | 39.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.