Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x571665c2d538a52321e60824442b3b02bf07d9d55fefb4f4b00aff6943216b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,766 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 26c | 809.87$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.49 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 37c | 577.33$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…9fdfbacked No | 75c | 526.65$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 35c | 343.48$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 73c | 317.87$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 317.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 313.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 292.44$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389e…3179backed Yes | 54c | 250.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 53c | 232.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 73c | 214.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 205.89$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 35c | 174.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 73c | 167.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 34c | 146.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 120.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…eb9dbacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 98.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 28c | 96.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 89.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 71c | 86.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…c115backed Yes | 35c | 86.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 79.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 74.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 65c | 73.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 70.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 60.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 31c | 60.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 59.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 37c | 58.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 23c | 58.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 38c | 53.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…cdd8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 47.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 48c | 46.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…9db8backed Yes | 32c | 40.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 39.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ff…7be7backed Yes | 38c | 31.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 45c | 26.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 66c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 64c | 22.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 74c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked No | 71c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 61c | 16.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 74c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.