Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e20552a4f82130c92cc7e44e85520a88a15f492a6466b522ecaf2b3ecfe607b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 63c | 919.62$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.49 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 598.57$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.38 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 3c | 485.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.29 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 409.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x389e…3179backed Yes | 47c | 343.97$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 322$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…8c38backed No | 73c | 287.88$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 275.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 36c | 224.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 207.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 199.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 32c | 198.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 56c | 167.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 153.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 34c | 145.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 36c | 144.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 140.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 131.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 41c | 123.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 21c | 121.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 43c | 121.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 118.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 68c | 115.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 104.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 28c | 102.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 99.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 88.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 31c | 79.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 53c | 70.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 69.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 61.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ff…7be7backed Yes | 42c | 61.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 39c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 24c | 60.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 42c | 59.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 60c | 56.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 58c | 53.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 31c | 47.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 46c | 42.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 41.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf20…67aebacked Yes | 32c | 40.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…6941backed Yes | 49c | 38.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 37.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 40c | 35.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 49c | 30.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 73c | 28.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 79c | 28.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 27.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 80c | 27.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked No | 47c | 27.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…2c85backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 24.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked No | 62c | 21.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…e576backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd76c…ec40backed Yes | 74c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…c7f7backed No | 64c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.