Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x571e53975242cd5fb098913a8853157e2bbc1747874c7317ff52d04ddd21ebb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 30c | 2,042$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.87 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 1,437$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 667.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 578.6$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 440.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 38c | 291.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 260.74$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 232.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 5c | 224.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 217$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 205$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 186$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 35c | 149.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 140.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 123.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 123.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 112.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 112.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 107.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 32c | 101.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 20c | 87.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 12c | 80.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 67.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 23c | 65.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 34c | 64.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 61.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 66c | 52.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 50.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 42.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 38c | 42.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 32.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 30.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 78c | 30.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 28.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 26.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 70c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 22.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.