Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x013217b1ff9045e17daa4aebf00c4e6d7b8500759af1a4f0c33ead7f75cb98f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d61…1e17backed Yes | 39c | 2,096$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 559.62$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 508.2$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 52c | 484.08$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 460.78$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 439.94$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 51c | 387.79$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 12c | 363.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 14c | 327.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 317.61$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 234$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 37c | 229.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 53c | 208$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 188$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 178$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 62c | 173$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 170.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 170.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 17c | 166.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 161.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 145.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 133$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 124$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 38c | 122.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…4e99backed Yes | 38c | 119.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…74c4backed Yes | 38c | 113.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 105.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 104.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 103.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 103.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 101.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 62c | 76.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 76.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 35c | 67.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 67.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 60.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 58.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 47.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 42c | 46.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 56c | 45.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 39c | 42.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 40.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 31c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 40.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 37c | 39.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…2776backed Yes | 37c | 38.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…1ad4backed No | 64c | 34.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 61c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 29.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 56c | 21.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 20.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…e947backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 63c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 56c | 18.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…329abacked No | 64c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…a0b1backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.