TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jie Cuiof Rio Noguchi, Jie Cui
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed19…83babacked Rio Noguchi29c11,802$3,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,39284736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ac…a373backed Rio Noguchi0c11,626$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jie Cui49c6,221$3,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1927,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked Rio Noguchi2c3,838$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.630672.9%223 W · 83 L+27.2wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Jie Cui53c3,178$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.9441251%210 W · 202 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Jie Cui68c3,081$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.736,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rio Noguchi46c3,042$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.028,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Jie Cui52c2,886$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.8221244.3%94 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked Jie Cui51c2,337$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.0413360.9%81 W · 52 L+0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Jie Cui61c2,122$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.324,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Jie Cui70c2,046$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.944,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Jie Cui79c1,674$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.541,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Jie Cui63c1,566$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.955,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Rio Noguchi61c1,410$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.424,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed Rio Noguchi31c1,200$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3725848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf677…0e56backed Rio Noguchi44c958.39$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42028350.5%143 W · 140 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Jie Cui55c879.36$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.6726535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Rio Noguchi60c828.01$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025957.1%148 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f05…d802backed Rio Noguchi34c761.18$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.86333.3%21 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Rio Noguchi61c757.01$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.762,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Jie Cui39c647.21$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.811158.6%65 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Jie Cui79c643.91$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.891,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Rio Noguchi78c639.45$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.7753655.4%297 W · 239 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Rio Noguchi63c613.91$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.791,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Jie Cui22c605.26$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.265660.7%34 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Rio Noguchi60c583.53$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.1241060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Jie Cui38c570.77$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.881,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Rio Noguchi55c514.83$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28511462.3%71 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Jie Cui63c501.46$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.348,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Jie Cui40c498.63$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.871,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Jie Cui40c497.14$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.882,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Jie Cui60c489.08$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.972,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Rio Noguchi21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa164…7d86backed Jie Cui44c459.09$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.0922248.2%107 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…7b98backed Rio Noguchi52c433.42$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Jie Cui40c382.41$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.4553843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Jie Cui53c338.88$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.413,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Jie Cui42c319.79$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Jie Cui35c308.05$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.697,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Rio Noguchi52c306.43$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16094549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Rio Noguchi49c281.35$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.624,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Rio Noguchi36c269.02$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9566139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Rio Noguchi37c268.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10088935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Jie Cui43c260.34$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6711747%55 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3216…0cc7backed Rio Noguchi59c254.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.559640.6%39 W · 57 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e4e…2564backed Jie Cui42c214.29$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.292254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…eee6backed Rio Noguchi59c203.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12031841.8%133 W · 185 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Rio Noguchi52c193.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Jie Cui55c189.17$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.376,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked Rio Noguchi58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034957.6%201 W · 148 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Jie Cui78c160$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3535187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc5d1…edabbacked Rio Noguchi31c157.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.667125.4%18 W · 53 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+10.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Jie Cui40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9086835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Rio Noguchi60c143.55$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1350958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Jie Cui39c142$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.627,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Jie Cui44c139.41$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.074,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa233…dfe8backed Rio Noguchi45c133.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9216350.9%83 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3626…3834backed Jie Cui39c128$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0811632.8%38 W · 78 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Rio Noguchi45c127.42$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3457447.7%274 W · 300 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Jie Cui34c125.45$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.281,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Rio Noguchi20c124$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.85518.2%10 W · 45 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-54%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Jie Cui39c119.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.593,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked Jie Cui64c109.38$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3841850%209 W · 209 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Jie Cui73c106.56$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.392,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6c…323abacked Jie Cui43c105.53$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0313640.4%55 W · 81 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Jie Cui64c103.13$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1367838.3%260 W · 418 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Jie Cui39c102.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.567,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Jie Cui69c101.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4515560.6%94 W · 61 L+15.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Jie Cui41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Jie Cui77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,09452.4%573 W · 521 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked Jie Cui63c97.66$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1325763.4%163 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Rio Noguchi59c96.58$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.142,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebe…72f2backed Rio Noguchi26c95.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5619926.6%53 W · 146 L-13.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Rio Noguchi41c91.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.392,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0da3…1b45backed Rio Noguchi57c87.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9717850%89 W · 89 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Rio Noguchi60c82.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.241,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Rio Noguchi45c75.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8774346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Jie Cui64c72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.921,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Rio Noguchi78c71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3892674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361f…5edabacked Rio Noguchi60c70.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.37856.4%44 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Jie Cui77c68.24$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9691880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Rio Noguchi44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Rio Noguchi60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4088560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Jie Cui49c65.25$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.972,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Rio Noguchi56c62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7243067%288 W · 142 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Rio Noguchi20c62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.416718.6%31 W · 136 L-23.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-54.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Rio Noguchi42c60.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.721,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Jie Cui40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3612933.3%43 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Jie Cui41c59.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.189,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Jie Cui67c59.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.758750.4%296 W · 291 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Jie Cui46c57.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2517460.3%105 W · 69 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Jie Cui36c54.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4632853%174 W · 154 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rio Noguchi36c51.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.576,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Jie Cui40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308350.6%42 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Rio Noguchi51c49.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6995846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Jie Cui57c48.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.851,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe88e…8244backed Jie Cui32c46.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.76757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fcb…207cbacked Rio Noguchi45c41.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.516642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Rio Noguchi44c41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.165,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Rio Noguchi56c40.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.622,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.