Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Spartak Trnava vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5755edf8178788b60cf03ba3604a378f7e43f1cef71ceb2fb52eff7a866c5617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 30c | 3,205$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.16 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 2,763$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.39 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd51…1041backed No | 59c | 2,474$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16de…fcc3backed Yes | 70c | 1,726$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bd…ff97backed Yes | 41c | 1,382$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 49c | 1,322$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.98 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 70c | 1,075$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.28 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed No | 42c | 986.87$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 40c | 683.53$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.71 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 71c | 676.36$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.87 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 50c | 584.18$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.77 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 29c | 508.6$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.11 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 8c | 499.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 51c | 475.95$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.66 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed No | 44c | 455.93$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked No | 60c | 449.48$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 37c | 286.84$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 44c | 257$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.92 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 38c | 226.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 222.57$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 151.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 49c | 126.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 71c | 125$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 92.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Yes | 80c | 62.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…fa88backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 30c | 36.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…e79cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Spartak Trnava vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Spartak Trnava win on 2026-07-22?No won
- Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.