Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia win on 2026-07-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3472f4d248da407ac5bb08e617a688579749399ca10b803f2fcf6315e5526d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 3,511$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.47 | 662 | 50.6%335 W · 327 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 3,194$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.4 | 695 | 48.9%340 W · 355 L | +19.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Yes | 32c | 2,462$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 2,347$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.4 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked No | 66c | 1,861$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.74 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,857$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.09 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 72c | 1,667$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.74 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 33c | 1,621$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.25 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 23c | 1,476$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.34 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 32c | 1,441$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.52 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 31c | 1,183$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.58 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 34c | 991.71$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.67 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 964.73$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 23c | 949.16$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 821.24$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.63 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 32c | 784.36$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.08 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…16b9backed No | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 33c | 607.36$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 33c | 514$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.95 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 70c | 418.7$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.61 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 32c | 370.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked Yes | 28c | 311.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 16c | 249.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 36c | 226.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked No | 70c | 214.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Yes | 17c | 194.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 28c | 184.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 371 | 46.4%172 W · 199 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 69c | 183.77$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 33c | 167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 155.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 70c | 141.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed No | 76c | 131.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes | 34c | 115.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 22c | 113.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 62c | 104$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 72c | 98.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 20c | 93.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 49c | 82.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 31c | 76.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 19c | 76.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 30c | 75.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 72c | 62.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 69c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cd…cc1bbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…1349backed No | 75c | 53.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 31c | 48.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 795 | 54.1%430 W · 365 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Yes | 30c | 41.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…bb1ebacked Yes | 34c | 41.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 68c | 34.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 79c | 30.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed No | 71c | 24.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed No | 74c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ead…f0fbbacked No | 71c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e33…e44ebacked No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia win on 2026-07-22?this page
- Will FC Spartak Trnava vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Spartak Trnava win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.