AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5758720ddd14082dc129ad67add33f7f7942200bb64bb7f50fb4c2bc1bd8ddd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 20c | 404.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 61c | 329.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 59c | 289.64$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…c0e1backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 70c | 149.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…cd2dbacked Yes | 73c | 144.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 133.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 54c | 131.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 124.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 30c | 96.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…efdabacked No | 21c | 93.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 29c | 84.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 40c | 66.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 43c | 60.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…29a3backed No | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 59c | 54.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Yes | 71c | 52.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…001bbacked Yes | 55c | 48.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…2a3ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…89e2backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…3293backed Yes | 48c | 31.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…4f39backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 50c | 28.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…35b2backed Yes | 72c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…086cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…285bbacked Yes | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 12?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.