Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576243e759360511362008087613242f0f120c7e08fc574f82aa197d6a3c82fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 3c | 4,838$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed No | 1c | 1,007$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 47c | 415.47$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.83 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 42c | 400$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 318.42$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 45c | 259.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.04 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 218.3$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 187.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 186.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 181.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 42c | 167.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 54c | 147$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 137.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 45c | 118.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 114.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 104.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 64c | 98.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 44c | 88.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 85.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 75.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 75.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 64.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 63.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 61.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 57.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 56.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 45c | 55.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 55c | 53.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 40c | 52.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 49.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 48.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 44.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 42.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 54c | 42.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 40.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 58c | 34.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 63c | 34.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…2d63backed Yes | 49c | 32.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 56c | 32.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 43c | 30.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 29.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 58c | 29.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 64c | 28.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 63c | 28.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 62c | 28.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe957…0988backed No | 52c | 24.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 44c | 24.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…d9e3backed No | 52c | 24.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 60c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.