TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,745 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under18c8,978$1,621 inLost-$1,620.868,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Under33c7,715$2,544 inLost-$2,543.954341.9%18 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over67c5,984$4,003 inWon+$1,981.3511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over64c1,878$1,200 inWon+$677.3112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$151085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over53c971.8$512 inWon+$459.715,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over57c845$480 inWon+$365.231,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over71c819.67$585 inWon+$234.336,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Under1c799.99$12 inLost-$12214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under71c565.17$400 inLost-$399.992,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Over52c387.42$200 inWon+$187.424647.8%22 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over63c316.67$200 inWon+$116.6732166.4%213 W · 108 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under72c162.98$117 inLost-$117.252,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x115e…5019backed Over78c128.21$100 inWon+$28.219553.7%51 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcac5…590ebacked Over48c100$48 inWon+$52475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over29c100$29 inWon+$714254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b13…37dbbacked Over32c62.5$20 inWon+$42.58955.1%49 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Over51c38.84$20 inWon+$18.8416251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebc…01c6backed Under52c36.54$19 inLost-$199243.5%40 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd6…1733backed Over61c35$21 inWon+$13.542934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over32c34.69$11 inWon+$23.6772655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdef1…bd5ebacked Over70c29.27$20 inWon+$8.78666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7870…7f43backed Over60c25$15 inWon+$101346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under68c24.73$17 inLost-$16.821,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.