MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb10b18b9ec25aec8c112c87ac64a198745f1a2f9afb5de1e0835a5bf3699ccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 56c | 14,805$8,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,514.03 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 8,949$4,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,206.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 8,730$4,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,034.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 6,852$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 4,515$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.48 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 46c | 3,502$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 56c | 2,411$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.85 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 1,505$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.25 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 43c | 1,359$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.28 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 1,262$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 43c | 1,064$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.99 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 44c | 860$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 42c | 652.17$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.26 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 45c | 589$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 564.74$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 53c | 437$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.39 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 52c | 302.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.14 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 42c | 234.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.84 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 228.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 56c | 207.39$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Under | 46c | 108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 74c | 101.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 62c | 100.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 65.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 53c | 59.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Under | 44c | 59.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 55.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 53.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…668dbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 51c | 51.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 53c | 50.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 48c | 44.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 43.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 32c | 37.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…ddc7backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 26.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Over | 52c | 25.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 58c | 23.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 68c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.