TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,788 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over49c2,266$1,104 inWon+$1,162.818,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under53c1,887$1,000 inLost-$1,00029950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under48c828.82$398 inLost-$397.862,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over41c731.54$301 inWon+$430.898,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over47c698.47$331 inWon+$367.4711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under48c410.29$197 inLost-$196.941,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under64c395.56$253 inLost-$253.1689053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over36c390$140 inWon+$249.612549.6%62 W · 63 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over42c242.04$102 inWon+$139.583,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over52c176.74$92 inWon+$84.848,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under62c161.29$100 inLost-$1008950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Under64c156.25$100 inLost-$10037256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under26c82.43$21 inLost-$21.0647743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over43c68.29$30 inWon+$38.6877353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under73c44.2$32 inLost-$32.4312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2110…d4fbbacked Under51c39$20 inLost-$19.8920962.7%131 W · 78 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over44c38.09$17 inWon+$21.336,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5c8…5e53backed Over47c37.3$18 inWon+$19.776256.5%35 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over38c32.72$13 inWon+$20.161,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Under39c30.77$12 inLost-$1229242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5587…6d07backed Under49c30.61$15 inLost-$1551656.6%292 W · 224 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Under48c25$12 inLost-$1251849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea47…d64bbacked Under66c19.42$13 inLost-$12.826243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.