MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed7ff86535d732f3eed1ea6a6b43cccad51fcc09a43886262f34cb162f268d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 26c | 11,170$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 7,415$4,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.69 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 6,614$5,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.79 | 981 | 49.9%490 W · 491 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 6,020$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 17c | 4,040$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 14c | 1,696$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 1,696$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.77 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,485$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.28 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 1,283$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 1,013$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 999.99$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.39 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 859.98$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.19 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 753$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.61 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 653.33$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 546.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.29 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 494.08$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 322.93$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Seattle Mariners | 33c | 312$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Seattle Mariners | 17c | 302.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Seattle Mariners | 23c | 266.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 260.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 242.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 205.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.57 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 194.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 10c | 192.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 192$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 183.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 168.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 153.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 142.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 140.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 131.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 119.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 118.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 116$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…0d32backed Seattle Mariners | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 83.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 79.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 75.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 69.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 58.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…9d02backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 51.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 42.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 39.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 37.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 32.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 30.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.