TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,383 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Over50c12,634$6,316 inWon+$6,317.5311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Under49c12,122$6,000 inLost-$6,0004341.9%18 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under22c6,856$1,535 inLost-$1,535.378,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over78c5,905$4,631 inWon+$1,273.458,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd19…3fb8backed Under6c4,000$230 inLost-$2303013.3%4 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+88.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over77c2,409$1,855 inWon+$553.746,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Under2c899.95$18 inLost-$18214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under55c730.4$400 inLost-$40019153.9%103 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under42c646.67$274 inLost-$273.6657046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over54c593.53$321 inWon+$272.032,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under4c423.56$15 inLost-$15.491085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Over50c396.42$198 inWon+$198.2119842.9%85 W · 113 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over57c306.1$174 inWon+$131.622,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c229.35$118 inWon+$111.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over34c198.84$68 inWon+$131.2399624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Under62c82.79$51 inLost-$51.3172655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over47c78.4$37 inWon+$41.554,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under65c76.92$50 inLost-$503,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…1fafbacked Under36c33.89$12 inLost-$12.0812448.4%60 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e56…55bbbacked Under44c31.82$14 inLost-$141030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Under53c30$16 inLost-$15.9366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Under44c27.27$12 inLost-$1218151.9%94 W · 87 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under62c23.87$15 inLost-$14.72,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under68c17.44$12 inLost-$11.841,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.