TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,772 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks78c4,408$3,444 inWon+$963.6211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners61c4,350$2,662 inLost-$2,661.8210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2e…034ebacked Seattle Mariners20c4,124$825 inLost-$824.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks39c3,459$1,356 inWon+$2,102.4212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks39c1,976$771 inWon+$1,205.164,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners61c768.39$469 inLost-$468.721,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Seattle Mariners61c358.97$219 inLost-$218.9797050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Seattle Mariners30c350$104 inLost-$103.6119842.9%85 W · 113 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks36c237.87$86 inWon+$152.241,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…3a3fbacked Seattle Mariners26c227.82$59 inLost-$59.2311637.9%44 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks59c189.73$111 inWon+$78.488,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Seattle Mariners61c162.03$99 inLost-$98.8473949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners60c159.36$96 inLost-$95.56,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks71c141.28$101 inWon+$40.568,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c126.45$82 inWon+$44.293,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Seattle Mariners61c104.37$64 inLost-$63.672,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Arizona Diamondbacks38c92.02$35 inWon+$56.891,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners34c64.87$22 inLost-$22.066,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Seattle Mariners25c46.32$12 inLost-$11.5877353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Seattle Mariners31c41.46$13 inLost-$13.0447743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Arizona Diamondbacks36c40.71$15 inWon+$26.054953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners45c40$18 inLost-$181,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fd6…1733backed Seattle Mariners44c37.66$17 inLost-$16.582934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e08…cae4backed Arizona Diamondbacks66c37.02$25 inWon+$12.414443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c32.47$20 inWon+$12.592,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Seattle Mariners65c30$20 inLost-$19.51,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea47…d64bbacked Seattle Mariners43c29.09$13 inLost-$12.516243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners65c26.55$17 inLost-$17.262,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd030…f3f0backed Seattle Mariners61c24.31$15 inLost-$14.8311946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf610…741cbacked Seattle Mariners61c21.23$13 inLost-$12.9525357.3%145 W · 108 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Seattle Mariners61c20.35$12 inLost-$12.4169447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.