MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x367ea78c7ea4838be6f2f918d6606ec47213dfd49127e5bbe043753be7a406b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3535…a775backed Over | 45c | 42,065$18,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,317.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 55c | 15,000$8,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,250 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 8,632$4,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,782.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 55c | 6,081$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350.17 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 4,330$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.99 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 2,648$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.82 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 2,006$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 57c | 1,258$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.21 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 56c | 879.99$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 849.4$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 55c | 713.32$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 651.02$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 563.18$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 55c | 514.68$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.07 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 379.11$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 47c | 304.58$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 37c | 260.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 258.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 54c | 132.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 122.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 56c | 80.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 22c | 68.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 46c | 65.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 59c | 59.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Under | 48c | 56.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 36c | 50.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 57c | 46.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 28c | 41.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 41.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…1e4ebacked Over | 46c | 38.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 45c | 37.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 57c | 36.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 43c | 24.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 63c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.