Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5769a451bc9e2c99723889e73b5b26ea5c2576679f3673bb0191a3bd71e442b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 204.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 184.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 159.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 7c | 156.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 123.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 113.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 110.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 31c | 97.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 88.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 13c | 88.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked Yes | 78c | 87.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 86.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 76c | 85.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 76c | 78.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 74.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 24c | 73.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…ea23backed Yes | 43c | 71.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 28c | 70.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 36c | 69.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 66.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 36c | 61.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 55.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 71c | 51.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 47.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 25c | 43.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 40.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 39.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 38.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 73c | 38.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 33.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 34c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ce…506cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 29.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 68c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 66c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 77c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 67c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.