Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36e74adc6ee0782194851f94cf40f87ffb3ca8f100d3254baf6c7d4081f096fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 564.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 553.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 73c | 455.44$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 348.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 297.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 259.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 48c | 254.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 250.87$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 68c | 236.15$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 156.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 152.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 63c | 125.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 117.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 65c | 115.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 22c | 111.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.44 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 75c | 106.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 56c | 98.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 21c | 92.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 18c | 90$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 27c | 89.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 53c | 88.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked Yes | 27c | 84.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 80.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 71c | 78.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 75.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 41c | 72.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 37c | 70.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 67.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 51c | 66.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 45c | 65.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 18c | 61.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 78c | 54.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 22c | 53.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 44c | 53.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 51.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 59c | 47.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 74c | 46.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…b20bbacked Yes | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 71c | 40.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 61c | 38.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 38.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…24dcbacked No | 79c | 36.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 76c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 63c | 31.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 28.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 64c | 26.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 53c | 23.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 74c | 23.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 76c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 79c | 19.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 68c | 15.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 13.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.