NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577ba56efaaba9d24ab24fbe84c16435a2d64e159087b15d838b04f327191a27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 62c | 614$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.08 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 63c | 443.06$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 40c | 351.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 62c | 338.71$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 38c | 308$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Under | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 47c | 255.23$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 37c | 223.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 62c | 207$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 8c | 128$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 49c | 105.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 62c | 97.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 40c | 87.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 40c | 87.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 78c | 32.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 38c | 30.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 75c | 27.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Under | 38c | 26.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…b1c1backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 62c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Sabres vs. PenguinsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.