MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5789d5b363e1be173491d8501d0967eeed9e16211b7e78989e3153bb362b3a7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9dd…a1d9backed Twins | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8086…22b7backed Guardians | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Guardians | 48c | 1,540$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.06 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Twins | 51c | 983.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.64 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…c03dbacked Guardians | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Twins | 51c | 785$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.2 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…ace9backed Twins | 52c | 775$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…9d38backed Twins | 53c | 755$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.91 | 170 | 45.3%77 W · 93 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Twins | 41c | 712$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.9 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Guardians | 49c | 705$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.55 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Twins | 50c | 680.5$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.25 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…a2e8backed Twins | 52c | 675$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf75…7352backed Guardians | 48c | 650$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Twins | 51c | 488.25$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.01 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Guardians | 48c | 405.63$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.93 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Guardians | 50c | 254.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 47c | 251.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Guardians | 48c | 226.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…a6dbbacked Guardians | 49c | 203.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Guardians | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…5d9abacked Twins | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…53ecbacked Guardians | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 51c | 189.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Twins | 30c | 120.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Twins | 37c | 112.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Guardians | 63c | 112.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…db8cbacked Twins | 52c | 102.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Twins | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…36a2backed Twins | 51c | 99.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…d52ebacked Guardians | 49c | 98.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15e…9a39backed Guardians | 49c | 96.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db1…2e23backed Twins | 53c | 94.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…6910backed Guardians | 49c | 94.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c5…5937backed Twins | 53c | 91.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Twins | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…7a30backed Twins | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Guardians | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Guardians | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…74ddbacked Guardians | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Twins | 50c | 45.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed2…e7ccbacked Guardians | 50c | 45.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Twins | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f807backed Twins | 52c | 44.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Twins | 52c | 31.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Twins | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…a44ebacked Guardians | 49c | 23.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…d3fbbacked Guardians | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…8affbacked Guardians | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.