Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b855357040cc6b4f79b939381caa2799c05f05354d5b8dc5cad7b30b9cd1ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 9,769$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.95 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,157$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 2,133$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,464$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,048$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 795.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…df24backed Yes | 3c | 755$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed Yes | 23c | 742.67$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 4c | 681.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 7c | 649.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 566.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 510.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4ef4backed Yes | 6c | 492.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 8c | 450$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 5c | 425.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 10c | 418.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 4c | 415.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 4c | 408.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 397.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230d…c39bbacked Yes | 3c | 382.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 3c | 349.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 10c | 324.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 11c | 315.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 6c | 305.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6076…f8fdbacked Yes | 7c | 281.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 278.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…bb09backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 6c | 249.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 10c | 212.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 11c | 209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 163.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 16c | 163.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 6c | 162.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 15c | 152.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 19c | 106.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 16c | 106.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 20c | 80.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.