Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18fe8360a96d6ed084b18ce237fa4068112e62826c3834ac16c06c8835c61c47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 9,912$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba0…d76abacked Yes | 0c | 6,393$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…cb2dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,560$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 71c | 1,289$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.53 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 1,003$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 6c | 562.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 508.47$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 499.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 68c | 438.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed No | 68c | 438.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4ef4backed Yes | 47c | 424.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 72c | 416.85$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 45c | 407.35$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 17c | 389.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 379.43$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 60c | 337.94$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 18c | 310.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 302$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 281.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 278.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 36c | 278.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 273.23$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 62c | 272.03$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 249.32$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 9c | 246.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 235.88$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 17c | 219.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 217.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 206.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 200.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 27c | 199.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 48c | 199.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 57c | 177.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc527…773dbacked Yes | 53c | 176.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 7c | 173.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 50c | 172.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 26c | 165.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6076…f8fdbacked Yes | 38c | 164.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed No | 66c | 147.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 69c | 144.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 32c | 144$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 69c | 143.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 135$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 66c | 133.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…bd47backed Yes | 41c | 123.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 108.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 39c | 108.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 64c | 102.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 60c | 102.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5096…c14cbacked Yes | 39c | 102.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 37c | 101.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed No | 72c | 99.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 29c | 96.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 31c | 96.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 92.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 64c | 91.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed No | 74c | 88.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 58c | 85.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 36c | 83.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 82.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 45c | 81.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 80.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 36c | 78.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 54c | 73.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed Yes | 34c | 72.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 42c | 71.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 70.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…e9d8backed No | 61c | 68.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…ccc1backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…b697backed Yes | 45c | 66.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 66.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 54c | 66.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 76c | 65.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 65.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 56c | 65.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 64.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed No | 78c | 63.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…08b0backed No | 76c | 61.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 50c | 57.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 66c | 56.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8a…6e95backed Yes | 27c | 56.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 52c | 54.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked No | 73c | 54.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…f18cbacked Yes | 37c | 53.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 42c | 50.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.