Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986eef17a9fa5cafa38a7bc6bc156f49cf158ecf1f811ddf4567ddbf84199b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 8,231$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.67 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,274$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 5,197$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,838$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 6c | 1,364$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,274$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 3c | 1,055$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 3c | 1,051$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 999.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 666.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Yes | 28c | 583.41$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366a…ebeabacked Yes | 3c | 475.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked Yes | 4c | 336$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 234.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 16c | 225.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…bc0ebacked Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 153.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…284cbacked Yes | 19c | 148.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 13c | 128.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…2fe5backed Yes | 17c | 119.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 10c | 115.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 17c | 102.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 17c | 91.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 19c | 89.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 17c | 72.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 29.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.