Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac49a0eab370e5fb4e4d8a175f6bd69b352cee5c7822cbcd41584b5ff2532faa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 7c | 5,328$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.73 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…7421backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,814$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.63 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 3,487$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,002$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 2,960$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,177$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 8c | 751.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 525.63$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…d69dbacked Yes | 48c | 419.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Yes | 30c | 405.12$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 20c | 348.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 74c | 336.5$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 32c | 311.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 6c | 289.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 70c | 269.9$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 78c | 236.08$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked Yes | 7c | 236$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 229.48$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 226.26$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 216.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 211.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366a…ebeabacked Yes | 8c | 205.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b0…ec7dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 67c | 188$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 36c | 171.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 143.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 140.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…284cbacked Yes | 49c | 136.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 135$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 133.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 22c | 121.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 34c | 118.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 64c | 109.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 47c | 106.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…eeaebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 51c | 97.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 41c | 94.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc527…773dbacked Yes | 54c | 93.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 89.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5161…177abacked Yes | 19c | 88.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 53c | 84.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed Yes | 52c | 76.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 51c | 72.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 63.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 62.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 54c | 55.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…7731backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 52c | 54.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 71c | 53.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 50.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 64c | 50.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…97f0backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 25c | 48.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…e5b1backed Yes | 33c | 46.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 34c | 45.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7201…e62bbacked No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 64c | 43.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c5…f99cbacked No | 50c | 42.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f9…ed8abacked Yes | 50c | 41.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3059…a423backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa356…715fbacked Yes | 46c | 38.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…2b6fbacked No | 65c | 36.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 37c | 35.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…23a6backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 45c | 32.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 75c | 31.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 28.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…5904backed No | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 58c | 28.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked No | 54c | 28.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…0de1backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked No | 70c | 23.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 52c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 22.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…e9d8backed No | 78c | 22.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.