Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd56fee66434f81f863f265f73cc61361fabb075777fe7e8ec0422f8330ecb63c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 1c | 1,317$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 43c | 959.92$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.56 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 30c | 899.92$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.98 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 10c | 794.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.32 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 615$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.09 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…d69dbacked Yes | 44c | 452.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 433.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 8c | 432.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.88 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 8c | 430.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 426$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4ef4backed Yes | 47c | 423.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 27c | 419.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 409.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked No | 9c | 389.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 21c | 358.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 21c | 319.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.98 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 301.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 278.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 16c | 275.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 46c | 267.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.16 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 8c | 262.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed No | 79c | 259.05$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 256.88$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 248$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.32 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf367…212ebacked Yes | 40c | 234.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 34c | 232.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.2 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 61c | 215.56$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 21c | 211.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.56 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 209.93$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed No | 33c | 200.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.35 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 30c | 194.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 23c | 190.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.51 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 188.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 7c | 184.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.63 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 183.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 163$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 12c | 154$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.03 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0061…6e0fbacked No | 67c | 149.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 145$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 144.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 38c | 143.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 141.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 133.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 18c | 131.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 18c | 125.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.11 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 8c | 124$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 66c | 121.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 111.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 70c | 109.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 29c | 108$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 41c | 106.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 19c | 100.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 97.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 96.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 74c | 95.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 39c | 94.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 78c | 93.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 18c | 92.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 78.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 14c | 77.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 75.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 14c | 74.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…65e9backed Yes | 44c | 68.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 63.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 53.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…7952backed No | 78c | 52.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 75c | 52.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 59c | 51.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 25c | 50.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 78c | 50.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…5c87backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 78c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 44.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed No | 77c | 39.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…9349backed No | 26c | 38.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed No | 79c | 38.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 80c | 37.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd5…6183backed No | 39c | 32.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 73c | 30.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.