MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d5b5241b198c831ff82d517cb60386aebfd392b41bd34097f8ce6b8c3dafdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 1,596$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 25c | 1,213$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.67 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 652$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.46 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 316.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 243$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 218$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.86 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 189$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 142$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 84.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 78.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…0a3ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 77.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 39.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 33.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 31.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 21.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 18.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-6.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.