MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f5ee9b04a45fc5387b19de6ef5c7125cd506ef001f8bc69b422968f69e16c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under | 61c | 2,787$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 2,751$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 1,715$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 59c | 1,603$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.79 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,583$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 1,445$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 708.62$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 662.15$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 66c | 511.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.64 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 50c | 485.1$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.55 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 445.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 39c | 435.16$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.46 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 433$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 34c | 414.06$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.28 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 172.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 119.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 35c | 106$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 65c | 100.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 35c | 81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…e1a1backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 50.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 67c | 45.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 45c | 37.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 74c | 28.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 27.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 47c | 22.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-6.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.