MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6213312c97ca91db7d0c6063b7f1fa009e4704b63637725dcd18383efb1ec816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 11,357$6,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,132.79 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 53c | 11,240$5,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,956.94 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 4,653$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 54c | 3,879$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.66 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 46c | 3,590$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.74 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 2,926$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.89 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 47c | 2,814$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.26 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 2,482$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 52c | 2,289$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.9 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 1,895$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,811$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.6 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,077$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 47c | 835.72$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.93 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 47c | 813.9$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.37 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 46c | 743.89$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.7 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 596.37$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 539.03$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.68 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 46c | 520$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 63c | 499.98$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 392.11$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 46c | 350.1$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 47c | 319.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.59 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 289.21$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 284$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 47c | 243.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 223.3$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 186.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 53c | 186.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 100.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 46c | 85.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 85.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 47c | 79.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 47c | 71.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 46c | 55.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Over | 53c | 52.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 53c | 51.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Over | 48c | 50.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2a…4b25backed Under | 47c | 50.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Over | 38c | 46.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 42.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 41.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 47c | 40.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 57c | 40.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 47c | 37.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Over | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 48c | 29.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 49c | 22.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Under | 47c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-6.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.