MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f47029363f6ed8b893a1dd7f4dfb7fe2576406bbbd9d720b1cfd87ee3e877d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa902…d159backed No | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 46c | 1,027$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.92 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed No | 49c | 1,013$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 48c | 580.63$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.2 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 51c | 540.05$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.63 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Yes | 50c | 441.17$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.59 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Yes | 51c | 348.13$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.58 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 53c | 292$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.24 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 53c | 260$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 53c | 232.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 51c | 187.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 50c | 187.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Yes | 54c | 184.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed No | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Yes | 53c | 103$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Yes | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…5cdcbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed No | 48c | 80.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 45c | 47.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…65dfbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed No | 48c | 22.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twinsthis page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.