MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa40bc5cdccd5ed4f20e238bedccbdebbb32aebfb721175cc2824ca9a5bea2088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 36,614$17,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,419.64 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 13,409$7,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,042.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 10,225$5,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,189.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 42c | 7,368$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 51c | 7,049$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,454.21 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 4,687$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 18c | 4,380$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.4 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 983.88$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Under | 47c | 797.87$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.87 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Over | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 436.05$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 56c | 351$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 67c | 313$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 294.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 265.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 66c | 264.75$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 34c | 226$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 202$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 189$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 66c | 185$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 52c | 152.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 34c | 138$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 66c | 132.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Over | 50c | 126.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 104$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 45c | 98.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 52c | 88.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 67c | 78.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 70.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Under | 52c | 53.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 46c | 46.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 68c | 44.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 78c | 44.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Over | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Under | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 36c | 33.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Over | 43c | 32.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 45c | 30.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…612bbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 54c | 29.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…3a5abacked Under | 65c | 27.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 54c | 21.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…eebbbacked Over | 52c | 21.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…bea1backed Over | 59c | 20.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.