MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2336c767cd0eca54098d02496298ce8b81f1c65a9c7e76051b1bd93ef5d4d21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 39c | 66,029$25,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,312.17 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 60c | 61,892$37,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,287.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Over | 43c | 14,256$6,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,064.02 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 60c | 12,986$7,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,234.37 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c058backed Under | 76c | 7,000$5,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 6,529$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.69 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 4,918$3,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,121.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 29c | 4,613$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Under | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 41c | 2,135$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.55 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 60c | 1,369$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.07 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 1,316$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 58c | 1,024$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.08 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 836.85$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 746$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.13 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 41c | 495$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.95 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 42c | 481.5$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 63c | 474.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 48c | 395.61$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 359.46$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 321.24$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 307.08$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 53c | 279.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 41c | 220.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995f…be04backed Over | 41c | 218.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 41c | 198.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 40c | 182.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 41c | 178$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 59c | 142.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 138.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked Under | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 64c | 95.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 59c | 85.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 59c | 84.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 37c | 78.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 37c | 52.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 44c | 42.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 39c | 42.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 39c | 42.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 40c | 32.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 64c | 31.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 59c | 27.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Over | 54c | 23.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 61c | 19.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d50…26d1backed Under | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.