Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f5c5db4b73197be290bf9de44d773ce019af324b13ea2fdebf1feb4d3f4ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 676.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.73 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 405.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.38 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 62c | 274.7$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 272.22$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 250.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 43c | 246.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 212.18$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 176.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 176.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 166.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 155.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 76c | 152.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 149.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 79c | 125.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 48c | 115.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 111$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 108.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 78c | 106.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 58c | 100.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 78c | 95.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 18c | 92.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 81.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 79.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 77.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 67.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 48c | 63.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 61.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 25c | 58.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 44c | 56.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 76c | 54.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…cd36backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 48.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 42c | 47.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 33c | 46.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 45.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 58c | 42.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…7f85backed No | 60c | 41.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 47c | 33.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 33.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 55c | 32.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 31.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 31.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 29.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 29.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…0c8bbacked Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 25.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 78c | 24.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 22.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 59c | 22.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73fb…ed58backed No | 75c | 19.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f7cfbacked Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 61c | 17.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cef…e11ebacked Yes | 73c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.