South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5816e0c2034784dd46e7a04cb2d8c2dee6be387369272bd1441e88d19d3e0f7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 73c | 1,376$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.26 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 27c | 1,005$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.35 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 959.26$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.17 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 72c | 803.35$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.94 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 31c | 800$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Over | 41c | 731.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 28c | 446.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 281.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 249.8$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…191cbacked Over | 18c | 206.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 187.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 28c | 171.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 28c | 123.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 45c | 78.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 38c | 65.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 56c | 56.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 60c | 30.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…fe04backed Under | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CA Vélez Sarsfield O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CSyD Defensa y Justicia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CSyD Defensa y Justicia O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
- Spread: CSyD Defensa y Justicia (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.