South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52ea61d5766c471c13a970689dbb2fcac623bd445600634f9e6952fc2435e8dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 33c | 14,538$4,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,797.38 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 69c | 6,554$4,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.82 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 42c | 6,308$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 68c | 5,258$3,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.16 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 4,792$3,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.06 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 4,461$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.66 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 3,839$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.21 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 44c | 2,598$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.91 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 2,584$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.9 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 2,282$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.44 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 67c | 1,955$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.35 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Over | 54c | 1,683$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 42c | 1,678$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.28 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 58c | 1,634$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.28 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 42c | 1,531$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.91 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 1,130$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.6 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 58c | 968$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.56 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 58c | 968$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.56 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 66c | 812.76$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.19 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 51c | 617.63$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.28 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Under | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…bd17backed Under | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 43c | 349$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 348.13$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 68c | 289.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Under | 51c | 288.8$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.51 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…317abacked Under | 40c | 257.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 26c | 255.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 18c | 244.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 58c | 220$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 48c | 217.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 40c | 209.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 66c | 203.36$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 19c | 197.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 41c | 190.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 43c | 168.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 25c | 145.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over | 31c | 138.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 28c | 115.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 60c | 113$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 43c | 110.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 66c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 62c | 81.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…4078backed Under | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…0c31backed Over | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 68c | 66.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 68c | 65.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 66c | 64.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 61.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 36c | 55.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 61c | 52.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 39c | 47.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 65c | 43.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2959…b716backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 59c | 42.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…502ebacked Over | 43c | 37.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daa…524bbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 66c | 33.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…eedbbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 59c | 25.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…1cc0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 63c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…8cd9backed Under | 75c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CA Vélez Sarsfield O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CSyD Defensa y Justicia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CSyD Defensa y Justicia O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
- Spread: CSyD Defensa y Justicia (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.