South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de6dc6eea86b9b9fb65a8a569824bf095b7783f4cefc5ece4d93b0e4c9fed73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 5,400$3,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.06 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 22c | 5,214$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 19c | 3,398$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.24 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 2,012$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.37 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 1,416$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.21 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 1,060$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.17 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 720$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 78c | 584.05$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 3c | 503.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 79c | 484$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Over | 21c | 480.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 312.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 77c | 282.41$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 69c | 166.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 21c | 114$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 22c | 64.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…9ac0backed Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 33c | 37.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 67c | 36.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked Under | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 78cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Under | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 78cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CA Vélez Sarsfield O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CSyD Defensa y Justicia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CSyD Defensa y Justicia O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
- Spread: CSyD Defensa y Justicia (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.