NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58235f3f3cd61b1cf1b2ff701646e58761ff5095a0d034384b574a768b501c9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29bf…87e8backed Over | 78c | 3,440$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83bc…2ed1backed Over | 78c | 2,750$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…3652backed Over | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…b225backed Under | 44c | 796$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…1f3fbacked Under | 58c | 624.84$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 12c | 466.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 22c | 345$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 78c | 185$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 158$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 126.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 34c | 113$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Under | 46c | 88.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 340 | 40.3%137 W · 203 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 30c | 74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…5f92backed Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 57c | 62.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Under | 24c | 57.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Over | 76c | 56.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…c604backed Over | 55c | 46.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Under | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 42.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaab…aeacbacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 68cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 73c | 33.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 45c | 28.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Over | 80c | 23.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a8…b852backed Over | 78c | 13.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5this page
- Panthers vs. RangersRangers won
- Panthers vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Panthers vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.