MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583e0c0db36880396cf786ad656f9c4635ca51344e79bfd2f7ea4b76c2cbd2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 49c | 20,514$10,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,051.79 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 19,713$9,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,659.49 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 17,709$8,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,712.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 17,645$8,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,646.1 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 7,221$3,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,476.59 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 6,855$3,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290.2 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 5,300$2,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,383.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 4,796$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 2,466$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 51c | 2,158$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.42 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 1,699$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 1,379$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.84 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 938.02$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 763.2$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.06 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 678.82$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.06 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 49c | 499.73$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.87 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Over | 51c | 388.23$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.23 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Under | 45c | 319.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.91 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 48c | 313$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 51c | 256$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 50c | 201.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 52c | 196$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 184.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 70c | 176.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 171$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 44c | 121$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 53c | 117.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 113.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 55c | 111.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 28c | 110.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Over | 45c | 108.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 108.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 51c | 105.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 34c | 93.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 39c | 87.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 83.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 51c | 79.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 79c | 77.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Over | 51c | 76.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 55c | 69.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 32c | 64.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…12bcbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…ddc7backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…dddfbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 40c | 31.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Over | 52c | 26.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 44c | 25.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…8bbdbacked Over | 69c | 24.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 64c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 71c | 19.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Over | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.