MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d9274913049de936bc46a1eb2fd410e266d2449cc5d59354a93893bc39ecd5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 3,882$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,665$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.75 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 1,464$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.12 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 892.58$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.09 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 829.76$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.78 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 472.53$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.39 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 444.33$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.08 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 410.84$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.95 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 397.56$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.57 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 326.14$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 255$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 23c | 245.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 44c | 227.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 43c | 199.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 193.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 158.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 47c | 130.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 64c | 124.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 54c | 90.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 48c | 85.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 32c | 71.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 42c | 71.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 57c | 70.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 53c | 64.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 55.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 52.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 50.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 43.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…08bfbacked Over | 38c | 42.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 39.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 53c | 37.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 54c | 35.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 65c | 23.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 63c | 22.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 21.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…8bbdbacked Over | 59c | 20.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 61c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Over | 63c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 65c | 16.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.