TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,345
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,629

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,345 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7d35…3d76backed Yes0c12,471$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No72c1,534$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.51,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No75c599.62$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.341,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes24c551.95$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.092,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14531936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes19c467.46$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7934628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes29c441.09$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c423.14$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c410.56$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f0b…08b0backed No77c390$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba41…3976backed No70c382.54$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes18c331.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c324.46$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.672,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No73c317.6$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.595,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…d97fbacked Yes23c302.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.192025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes30c289.65$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2925947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No74c232.24$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4631454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes30c202.46$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.591,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No76c194.43$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes27c183.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.971,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c183.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No70c159.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed No73c157.66$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.093562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes24c147$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.631,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes36c144.04$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No75c132$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3337056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes17c125$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.531,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c111.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.249,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes28c107$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.962,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes25c106.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.534,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes11c100.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7540461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3172837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c94.14$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.144,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed No62c89.72$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7732958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c87.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.237,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes23c78.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.113,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes24c78.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes25c76.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.466926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes19c73.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9190734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No78c72.48$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.154,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c70.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.858,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes30c67.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.063,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked No77c64.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7421651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c63.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c63.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.093,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes29c60.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.153,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes28c60.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8417352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes21c58.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.553,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c53.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.092,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes24c51.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2975…56e0backed Yes21c51.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.991729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No48c50.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.262,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe67c…3de5backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes25c45.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4844536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes35c45.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.671,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes27c44.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes29c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.182630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.64,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.573,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes29c39.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.532352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No70c38.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.798160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes61c33.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No79c30.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4780957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.629443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No74c29.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7826458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No72c28.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No72c27.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.682,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6747175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No76c24.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.775,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x404a…559ebacked No74c23.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.171163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked No77c23.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3812072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6731564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked No73c20.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5654335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No74c20.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1622550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d8…a8cebacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.29361.3%57 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d06…b2eabacked No77c19.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ae…ab03backed No74c18.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.74933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-46.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No70c17.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No64c16.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.92,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No70c15.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7346549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9517165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.