Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd2a1433cf1e6ff686bdd8cd96c95a3da7866ad428b5d7ef67ab3b706b598d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 1c | 1,106$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 586.25$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 377.34$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 317.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 310.04$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 51c | 294.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 50c | 180.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 55c | 167$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 59c | 150.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 41c | 134.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 127.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 37c | 121.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 118.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 39c | 114.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 108.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 108.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 105.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 100.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 47c | 94.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 48c | 92.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 87.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 46c | 87.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 70c | 83.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 80.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 41c | 80.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 49c | 73.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 71.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 42c | 65.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 63.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 54c | 60.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 38c | 53.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 51c | 52.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 52.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 40c | 51.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 49c | 47.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 45.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 50c | 45.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…dc92backed Yes | 58c | 44.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 46c | 42.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 41.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 52c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 50c | 35.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 34.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 34.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 51c | 33.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 59c | 32.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 31.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 30.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 30.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 49c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 29.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 40c | 29.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…de16backed No | 42c | 28.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 49cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 53c | 28.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee66…b679backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 26.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…a3b8backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 59c | 24.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 47c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…84b8backed Yes | 52c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 59c | 22.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 18.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…a8b9backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 74c | 17.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.