MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x585929f3c3f71ffd208c0c3e4f24df1c16f3d1ddf4e0c1e2e2103d274bbb3623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 20,173$8,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,674.18 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked New York Mets | 57c | 13,573$7,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,836.39 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…dd00backed New York Mets | 58c | 6,487$3,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed New York Mets | 57c | 5,108$2,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196.44 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 3,290$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.95 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed New York Mets | 57c | 3,150$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.5 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 2,762$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.38 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 1,496$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.23 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed New York Mets | 57c | 1,472$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.96 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 702.56$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…f3efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 534.95$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 455.7$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked New York Mets | 57c | 380.52$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 107 | 19.6%21 W · 86 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 219.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 185.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed New York Mets | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Mets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac46…ca4abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 127.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed New York Mets | 56c | 109.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Mets | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed New York Mets | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed New York Mets | 57c | 55.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 52.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked New York Mets | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed New York Mets | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 40.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Mets | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked New York Mets | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed New York Mets | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked New York Mets | 58c | 23.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.