Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ab485e0005bebd1e8d464628d476d81cd3c731a3a1f132b288c6c8276eaac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 18c | 369.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 299.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 72c | 265$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 15c | 240.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.04 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 186.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 174.2$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 166.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 67c | 139.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 132.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 20c | 130.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 118.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 116.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 107.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 105.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 103.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 24c | 102.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 94.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 12c | 87.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 84.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 75.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 18c | 72.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 65c | 68.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 67.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 23c | 65.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db0…6ac5backed No | 33c | 48.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 41.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 38.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 36.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 38c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 16.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 79c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.