Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd37c9974d3bd34360d9ddc339fa0d4c0597016cdc3cf02afd2ad7e586156b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fa1…864bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,414$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 931.16$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 688.48$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 37c | 413.49$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 407.29$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 284.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 277.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 276.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 271.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 255$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 236.97$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 54c | 225.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 217.03$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 33c | 199.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…d48cbacked Yes | 52c | 190.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 190.61$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 188$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 146.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 145.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 46c | 141.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 50c | 138.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 136.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 44c | 135.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 132.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 131.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 123.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 46c | 122$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 50c | 118.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 116.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 79c | 115.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 113.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 105.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 103.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c532backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed No | 56c | 97.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 49c | 94.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed Yes | 46c | 83.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 46c | 83.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 57c | 82.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 39c | 80.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 75.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 64c | 73.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 19c | 71.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 69.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 43c | 61.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 51c | 59.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 43c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 55.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 55c | 53.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 53.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 41c | 53.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 52.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 44.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…36d6backed Yes | 50c | 42.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 65c | 41.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 63c | 40.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 63c | 39.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 38.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 39c | 37.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 41c | 33.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…36fbbacked Yes | 62c | 32.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 42c | 31.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 58c | 30.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdff…205cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 53c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 47c | 28.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…4e99backed Yes | 44c | 27.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 45c | 27.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 56c | 27.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 52c | 27.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 25.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 24.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 54c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 52c | 23.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 49c | 21.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…9370backed Yes | 64c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.