Euroleague · resolved market
Euro Basket: Estonia vs Portugal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ed18ac4b17eef528a17e0b4fa378de894caeb3d5d8e85b6c6781189e8fe13f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portugalof Estonia, Portugal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Estonia | 46c | 2,148$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.69 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Estonia | 67c | 1,383$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Portugal | 43c | 1,306$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.39 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Portugal | 44c | 1,200$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.97 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Portugal | 42c | 1,200$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.14 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Estonia | 58c | 906.52$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.52 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Portugal | 37c | 693.2$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Estonia | 61c | 665.94$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Portugal | 46c | 650$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Estonia | 37c | 633.76$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.09 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…af3bbacked Estonia | 78c | 600$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Portugal | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Estonia | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked Estonia | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Estonia | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Estonia | 79c | 328.75$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…a8eebacked Portugal | 43c | 315.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Portugal | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Portugal | 31c | 229.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.78 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Estonia | 56c | 224.58$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Estonia | 58c | 187.41$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Estonia | 60c | 185$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…05f2backed Estonia | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Portugal | 49c | 133$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…d6bfbacked Estonia | 68c | 117.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Estonia | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Portugal | 27c | 95.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…a365backed Estonia | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…4f78backed Estonia | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked Portugal | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Estonia | 55c | 60.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…4f2cbacked Estonia | 63c | 60.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…ec02backed Estonia | 56c | 54.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b6f5backed Portugal | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…1eb6backed Estonia | 62c | 48.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Portugal | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 159 | 8.2%13 W · 146 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Estonia | 60c | 38.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…6b2dbacked Estonia | 55c | 36.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Estonia | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Portugal | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd95b…188ebacked Portugal | 40c | 28.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Estonia | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Portugal | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.