TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,688 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c1,275$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.931,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes36c1,264$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c653.97$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.698,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes32c488.11$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8316733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed No69c305.59$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.596758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes48c258.55$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.972,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No59c250$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes15c246.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.421,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No64c201.17$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.822,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.122,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No80c165.96$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7427852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No43c160.54$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.794,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No68c145.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.562,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No59c130$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No59c110.16$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.171,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3119345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4242547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes52c98.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes41c93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.676,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No62c88.11$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.782,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes31c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes40c74.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No58c67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1476924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4387…afb3backed Yes24c56.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No55c50.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0414945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.855,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes45c46.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5881558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes40c44.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes43c41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.543,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.453,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.849750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c39.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No58c39.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4839768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No72c37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.532,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes34c36.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No67c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.892,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.799150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No68c31.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.021,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes40c29.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c25.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.34,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.752,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No58c23.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.619965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.416946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.415545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.418254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.415345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.52,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.